Prices of apartments in Poland.Apartments are getting more and more expensive.Why are prices rising?Forecasts 2022

By drzwioknarzeszow02/03/2023506 Views

2022-02-0312:21

Housing prices in Poland are about 16% more expensive than a year ago.We would like to remind you that in the first quarter of 2021 the prices of apartments jumped by 8%.There are virtually no inheritance, which can be seen in the table with the prices of apartments in the fourth quarter of 2021, included in the article.Below you will find current data on the prices of apartments in the largest cities in Poland and their percentage increases.Will the situation change?Find out what the 2022 forecasts are.Will flats in 2022 be cheaper?Discover the opinions of experts.

Contents

Why are the prices of apartments in Poland rising?
Prices of apartments in Poland Table - IV quarter 2021
Prices of apartments in Poland Table - III quarter 2021
Prices of apartments in Poland TABLE - 2nd quarter 2021
Prices of apartments in Poland Table - 1st quarter 2021
Housing prices in Poland - what are the forecasts for 2022?
Where did the prices of apartments increase the most?
Housing loans are getting more and more expensive
How the growing salary increases the prices of apartments
Where will you buy the cheapest apartment in Poland?

Why are the prices of apartments in Poland rising?

In the fourth quarter of 2021, housing prices were still rising.The expander report shows that on average they were up to 16% higher than last year.Record low interest rates and more expensive prices of building materials have led to very high demand for apartments and a significant price increase.The growth rate was similar in all market segments (small, medium and large premises) and amounted to OK.16% y/y.In Warsaw, you have to pay over 14 thousand.PLN per m², in Krakow about 12.5 thousand., Białystok almost 10 thousand.Exact data in the table below.

All this happens because there are more people willing to buy apartments than apartments available for sale.On the other hand, we have a record demand.And although developers are trying to complete these deficiencies, it is impossible to do it overnight.Tax changes related to Polish order, high prices of building materials, rapid salary increase or the risk of tightening armed conflict in Ukraine are not without significance.The program "Apartment without a own contribution" will start soon.

We also observe a record inflow of cash to the housing sector.People with sufficiently large savings willingly invest in real estate, instead of counting on small interest, although this may change after an increase in interest rates.The record high prices of apartments in Poland are also affected by rising prices of building materials, and thus - the costs of conducting the entire investment.According to GUS data, the price of construction and assembly production in August 2021 compared to the same month of the previous year increased by 4.4%, and compared to July 2021 - by 0.7%.

Let us remind you that in the first quarter of 2020 the average price per square meter of a flat in Poland was PLN 4,567.The next, pandemic months have already brought quite clear jumps in this area.According to GUS data, the average price per square meter in the first quarter of 2021 was PLN 4,944, and in II- 5112 PLN.It is PLN 545 more than a year ago, and it is worth remembering that the amount given includes real estate from all over Poland.Average prices per square meter in the largest Polish cities are definitely higher.

Prices of apartments in Poland Table - IV quarter 2021

Prices of apartments in Poland Table - III quarter 2021

We would like to remind you that the 2nd and third quarter of 2021 on the 7 largest markets the average transaction price of the premises from the developer was in the second quarter by more than 11% higher than a year ago, and a meter of second -hand premises Poles paid more than 9% more than a year ago.These are averaged data for the 7 largest markets.This group includes: Gdańsk, Gdynia, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Warsaw and Wrocław.

Prices of apartments in Poland TABLE - 2nd quarter 2021

Prices of apartments in Poland Table - 1st quarter 2021

Housing prices in Poland - what are the forecasts for 2022?

It is very difficult to predict whether the decrease in housing prices will actually appear.On the one hand, interest rate increases can inhibit demand and download prices down.In turn, price increases can cause an exacerbation of the armed conflict in Ukraine.Its result may be the influx of a large wave of immigrants.This could significantly increase the rental costs and, as a result, would translate into an increase in investment demand for apartments.

As we have already mentioned, tax changes related to Polish order, but also high prices of building materials, a rapid increase in remuneration will not without influence on the prices of apartments in Poland.The program "Apartment without a own contribution" will start soon.All these elements will affect the situation on the real estate market in 2022.

Will flats in 2022 be cheaper?Expert forecasts say not, although growth dynamics is to slow down in the next two years.The apartments are happy and will enjoy the interest of investors for a long time.Recently, we are observing the great interest of investment funds in the housing market.They buy the entire housing estates to sell them later at a profit.This means that apartments on the market are starting to be missing and are getting more and more expensive.Read more about the investment of funds here.

According to experts, next year you can expect another, even about 15% increase in housing prices in Poland.Very high demand for real estate is increasingly translating into rising prices. All this happens because there are more people willing to buy apartments than apartments available for sale, choć deweloperzy próbują uzupełnić te braki.The problem is too small apartments today.This strengthening is the key to satisfy the needs of Poles.Certainly it would be a better scenario than one in which housing prices are rising so rapidly that they will cause that willing to buy apartments will be will.

Currently there is a small chance that the apartments will stand.There are at least three reasons.In the face of rapidly rising prices, we are looking for protection against inflation.We are looking for an investment that gives decent profitability.In addition, the epidemic caused that we prefer to invest in safer assets.Real estate response to all these ills.History shows that long -term investors can count on a higher apartment prices than inflation.On rental in large cities - though less than a year ago - you can earn for a year the amount corresponding to 4% of the value of the apartment.If that was not enough, real estate is considered a safe investment.All this makes up high demand for flats during the epidemic period.

The main factor affecting the decrease in prices will be interest rate increases.They inhibit both investment demand and buyers buying apartment for themselves.Thanks to foot increases, investors can get a profitability of over 6% by buying corporate bonds.Such an investment requires much less west than buying an apartment and later renting it.Flats are no longer the only way to get high and stable profits.In addition, higher interest rates make mortgage loans more expensive.

It is difficult to assess the further increase in the prices of apartments.In the first quarter of 2021, the increase in housing prices was at 8%, in the second - 10%, in IV, already 16%.What's next?Let us remember that the real estate industry is a chain of relationships between real estate brokers, developers, construction companies (general contractors), investors and buyers.In the coming years, the situation on the real estate market will change strongly.

Where did the prices of apartments increase the most?

The largest increases in the fourth quarter of 2021, exceeding 20% y/y, were recorded in Bialystok (25% y/y) and Sosnowiec (20%).The situation in Bydgoszcz (7.4% y/y) and Częstochowa (9.8% y/y) looked the least.

Housing loans are getting more and more expensive

Banks borrow record amounts for apartments, and they still haven't said the last word.Today, not only Poles want to take out housing loans, but also banks want to grant them very much.

Currently, higher interest rates make mortgage loans more expensive.The WIBOR 6M rate, used by banks granting most of the new loans, increased from 0.27% in September to 3.44%.As a result, the installment of the average loan, i.e. PLN 330,000 for 25 years, increased from PLN 1,544 to PLN 2,136, i.e. by as much as 38%.However, this is not the end.Term contracts' notes show that in half a year WIBOR 6M can be as much as 4.8%.In this situation, the interest rate on loans with 10% of the own contribution would exceed 7%.The installment of the aforementioned loan would be PLN 2,419, i.e. 56% more than in September.

Higher costs of the loan in the case of investment purchase mean less profit.In the case of buying an apartment for yourself, the problem is also a decrease in the available loan amount.In September 2021.She was OK.38% higher than at the current level of WIBOR rate.This means that if someone could count on a loan before foot raises, e.g..at PLN 400,000, it will now receive OK.PLN 289,000.It should be added, however, that it is worth comparing banks' offers in this respect, because the available loan amount in individual banks can vary by even over PLN 100,000.

How the growing salary increases the prices of apartments

There is a clear correlation between the payroll and real estate prices.In long -term terms, our salaries are one of the most important variables affecting the average cost of living or house.As an example, let's take a closer look at the Pomeranian Voivodeship.Corravement income - real estate prices are extremely high and historically as much as 97%, taking into account the data since 2010.This helps that the prices of apartments and houses until 2022 will increase at a rate of 6-7% per ann.Of course, for the above scenario there are a number of short -term threats, such as the risk of significant deterioration of the economic situation, excessive saturation of the real estate market or tightening the provisions regarding the granting of mortgage loans.In these situations, developers will, however, be forced to limit supply, which makes prices even more than it would result from the rate of remuneration growth.

As an example, let's take a closer look at the Pomeranian Voivodeship.The chart presents a dependence of the increase in housing prices in the Tri -City on the growing income of Pomerania over the last 10 years.

Where will you buy the cheapest apartment in Poland?

The Expander report shows that everyone who wants to buy a flat in the coming months or even years must prepare for a considerable expense.For example, housing prices in Warsaw have already exceeded PLN 10,600 per m², in Gdańsk a 50-meter flat was up to PLN 70,000.Radom (22%), Toruń (21%) and Katowice (19%) did not miss the increases..Still, there is no indication that the apartments would be cheaper.The report reads that m² has increased the most in Gdańsk and Wrocław, only in Gdynia in the last quarter has fallen slightly.

The report shows that among the largest cities in Poland we will buy the cheapest apartment in Radom and Częstochowa.The most expensive we will pay for m² in the capital and Gdańsk.

Marzena Sarniewicz