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Nothing prevents us from doing differently this time.In Bosnia and Herzegovina, we could organize a peace conference once before the war, before the massacres and crimes multiply, absorbing hundreds of thousands of new victims - and there were so many in the 90s.

The leaders of the Serbian half of this confederation country are now threatening to create their own army, in other words: secession, and then joining Serbia.President Aleksandar Vučić turns up the nationalism more and more clearly, and behind the scenes Putin enjoys the situation, supporting the "self -determination" of Slavic cousins and another crisis that can happen on the border of the Union.

As for the Croatian-Muslim part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, her nervousness increases because she is in danger of a civil war.Muslims are wondering what would happen to them if the country broke up, and the Bosnian Croats joined Croatia in response to a similar movement of Bosnian Serbs.

If we do nothing, these events will inevitably lead to war.The question is: what to do and how fast?

Of course, the easiest way would be to carry out a new EU extension: to accept Serbia and all other countries of former Yugoslavia, including Bosnia and Herzegovina.It would be a way to determine boundaries that allow these countries to develop and protect them at least partly against the maneuvers of Russia, Turkey, and now also China, aiming at taking over them.

There are many supporters of such acceleration in the European Parliament and several European capitals, but it is neither possible nor desirable.Today's opinion does not want another extension.The Union cannot accept new countries before reformed and define its political ambitions for the next quarter of a century.He also cannot accept countries that have not regulated their border issues.Finally: the Union would shoot at the foot, opening the door to countries as small as Montenegro and Kosovo, granting the right of veto a population less than the population of many European cities.

Since the extension to the whole of the Balkans is not an option today, there is an idea to attempt at a preventive peace conference attempt to end the war for the division of Yugoslavia, which broke the Balkans into shreds in the 90s.

In the face of the threat of civil war, the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina should first be asked if they still want to live in a common state (USA and Europe wanted Yugoslavia to survive thanks to Dayton agreements).If the answer is "yes", you will need to create new institutions, respecting the necessary cultural autonoms and truly inclusive.If the answer is "no", the territorial division should be negotiated, paving the way to the creation of a Muslim Singapore, joining the Serbian and Croatian parts to Serbia and Croatia.

The issue of division will be complex, because the Serbian and Croatian population is repaired in many parts of the country.But is it better to divide with weapons or by way of negotiations?By regional conflagration or a peace conference under the auspices of the European Union?

The answer is included in the question.In the same movement, you will have to work on the combination of Albanian Kosovo and Albania on the one hand and Montenegro and Serbia on the other to create a federal but uniform state.

The EU could significantly help, arguing that these would be Sine Qua Non any closer process with the EU - first a full agreement with an association, then gradual integration with individual circles of the future EU, i.e. economic and political, and maybe even both.

It will not be easy.Success is not certain, but in the face of a threat, the Union would undermine its credibility with a new war if it did not even attempt to make peace.